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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd