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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still